There could be ups and downs in the stock market this week. The market will keep an eye on factors like Maharashtra election results, F&O expiry and Q2 GDP data. The market gap may open on Monday after the BJP’s big victory in Maharashtra.
According to Harshubh Mahesh Shah, founder of Wealth View Analytics, this week, Nifty-50 may touch the level of 24,500. However, a sell-off may take place at this level and in the coming days, Nifty may fall by around 1,000 points to reach the level of 23,500.
According to Harshubh, the main direction of the market will remain negative.
5 factors that will decide the market movement this week…
1. Maharashtra results: Market rally possible thanks to NDA victory
The effect of the Maharashtra election results is visible in the market on Monday. NDA achieved a unilateral victory in Maharashtra, due to which the possibility of a rise in the stock market increased.
Earlier on Friday too, Sensex had registered a rise of around 2,000 points after exit polls predicted victory for the NDA. This rally could continue on Monday as well.
2. Global factors: Russia-Ukraine tensions heighten inflation fears
Rising crude oil prices as well as growing tensions between Russia and Ukraine have increased inflation fears. The market will keep an eye on economic data such as the US GDP growth rate in the second quarter and the FOMC minutes.
3. FII and DII: FIIs sold Rs 41,000 crore
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) combined withdrew 1.55 lakh crore from Indian markets in October and November. In the month of November, foreign investors have so far sold around Rs 41,000 crore in the cash segment.
However, domestic institutional investors continually purchase DII. Domestic investors have made purchases worth around Rs 38,000 crore so far in November. Earlier in October, domestic investors had purchased Rs 1.07 lakh crore.
4. IPO and listing: no mainboard IPOs, 6 SME IPOs
In the motherboard segment, no new IPOs will open this week. However, bidding for Enviro Infra Engineers’ already open IPO will close on November 26. Six new issues will be open for subscription in the SME segment.
While NTPC Green Energy shares will debut on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) on November 27. Two stocks from the SME segment will also be listed this week on BSE SME or NSE SME.
5. Technical view: upward selling strategy from level 24,500
Technically, Nifty has reclaimed its 200-day exponential moving average (DEMA) and is approaching the next resistance at its 20-DEMA, 24,020. By crossing this level, Nifty can move towards a range of 24,350 to 24,550. On the downside, a strong support zone of 23,500 remains.
Palka Arora Chopra of Master Capital Services Ltd believes that Nifty 50 ended the week with a positive candle on the weekly chart, rebounding after eight weeks of selling. Recovery has come in Nifty after a 200-day EMA. Chopra said traders can adopt the sell-up strategy until Nifty sustains above 24,500.
Sensex rises by almost 2000 points after 5 months
On the last trading day of the week, i.e. November 22, the Sensex closed at 79,117 with a rise of 1,961 points (2.54%). Nifty also rose by 557 points (2.39%), closing at 23,907 level.
Out of 30 Sensex stocks, 29 rose and 1 fell. Out of 50 Nifty stocks, 49 rose and 1 fell. Except for Nifty Media, all sectoral indices on the NSE closed with gains. IT and real estate indices rose the most.